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For the Week of March 13-18, 2011

TraderX — Sun, 13 Mar 2011 21:53:15 +0000

EURUSD remains bid as the nearterm rise from the February 14, 2011 low of 1.3427 remains active as only a daily open and close below 1.3803 will complete this wave while last weeks high 1.4035 caps. While daily prices close above 1.3803, continue to look for opportunities to buy EURUSD for with 1.4026, 1.4077 and 1.4128 as the nearterm upside targets.

For the Week of February 13-18, 2011

TraderX — Sat, 12 Feb 2011 13:54:22 +0000

EURUSD outlook for the week ahead remains bid as the rise from the January 10, 2011 low of 1.2873 remains active as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3483 will complete the rise while the February 2, 2011 high of 1.3860 holds. A daily open and close below 1.3483 will favor further downside extension within a 1.3250-1.3483 consolidation zone as once prices move within this consolidation zone a sustained break outside the zone will favor further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the recent corrective fall from Wednesday's 1.3743 high, this wave remains active until daily prices close above 1.3591 while Friday's 1.3496 low holds. Intraday resistance located within the 1.3572-1.3591 zone while firm support located within the 1.3462-1.3483 region.

EURUSD Outlook for the Week of February 6-11, 2011

TraderX — Sun, 06 Feb 2011 19:19:33 +0000

EURUSD broad outlook remains in a bullish declining wedge formation as identified on the monthly chart with the February upside trendline resistance at 1.4478 while the downside trendline support coming in at 1.1655. Additionally, the fall from the November 2009 high of 1,5143 which is complete at the 2010 low of 1.1876 remains in a broad 1.3124-1.3895 consolidation zone as a monthly open and higher close above 1.3895 will favor further rise, while to the downside a monthly open and lower close below 1.3124 will favor further downside extension. As to the medium term rise from the January 2011 low of 1.2873, this rise remains active while 1.3483 supports, as ONLY a daily open and lower close below 1.3483 will complete the rise from 1.2873 while last weeks 1.3860 high caps. For the week ahead look for bids with the 1.3350-1.3400 to support further rise targeting 1.3952 in the days ahead.

Forecast for 2011 , EURUSD, GBPUSD, Spot Gold

TraderX — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 00:07:16 +0000

January 3, 2011 19:07 GMT

EURUSD'S medium term rise from the September 10, 2010 low of 1.2643 is complete at the November 2010 high of 1.4281 as prices have extended lower in recent weeks reaching 1.2968 on November 30, 2010. This fall from 1.4281 remains active until daily prices open and close above 1.3468, as this will favor further rise targeting 1.3787. However, until prices close above 1.3468, look for further downside extension to continue in the days ahead targeting 1.2870 followed by 1.2643. As to the broad outlook, EURUSD remains in a declining wedge formation from the 2008 high of 1.6037 as this broad consolidation pattern favors an upside break in the months ahead. This pattern is less than 50% developed, therefore probability is that EURUSD prices will be confined within the descending wedge formation in the months ahead as the potential range for EURUSD for 2011 is 1.1450-1.4500.

GBPUSD's remains in a broad symmetrical triangle pattern from the 2009 range of 1.3502-1.7042 as this pattern will break sometime in 2011. Look for a monthly open and close outside this paterm to support further price extension in the direction of the break. For January 2011, a monthly close above 1.6215 will favor further rise targeting 1.6395 followed by 1.6721 while to the downside, a monthly open and close below 1.4658 will favor further downside extension targeting 1.4303 followed by 1.4110.

Below I have listed essential triangle or symmetrical triangle pattern criteria, all of which apply to the current pattern witnessed on the monthly GBPUSD chart.

1. Trend : In order to qualify as a symmetrical pattern, an established trend should exist. The prior trend should be several months old and the symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuation or trend reversal.

2. Four (4) Points : At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and two trend lines are required to form a triangle, however, 3 points per trendline are needed to confirm. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a triangle. Ideally, the breakout occurs after 6 points (3 on each side). At this writing there are 4 lower points and 3 upper points.

3. Volume: As the triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume begins to diminish. Such has been the case the last few weeks. This is known as the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.

4. Duration: The triangle can extend for a few days to a few months and is directly related to the recent trend. The strength and momentum of the subsequent breakout is directly proportionate to the duration of the symmetrical pattern. The current pattern as a duration of several months as a strong trend will likely follow once the breakout occurs.

5. Breakout Time Frame: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern’s development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from convergence of upper and lower lines. A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and often a false break, most breakouts occur after 2/3 of the pattern is complete.

6. Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred, thus when such breakouts do occur the resulting extension will be supported by strong trend dynamics.

7. Breakout Confirmation: For a break to be considered valid, it should be on a closing basis with a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. However, in that the current pattern duration is more than several months in duration, a monthly open and close outside the pattern will be required to confirm the break. Additionally, as the breakout unfolds, an expansion in volume and momentum will occur. As often occurs, once prices break above or below the trendlines, a retest of the trendlines as support or resistance usually follows, thus allowing opportunity to enter a position once the breakout is confirmed.

8. Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.

9. Price Target : There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern’s trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.

Conclusion: The current multi monthly consolidation pattern on GBPUSD is nearing its end, with potential for a breakout to occur in 2011.

Spot Gold (XAUUSD) has reached 1,431 in December 2010, just shy of our 1,436 target which was to 100% extension from 680 of the 275-1,032 rise. Look for further rise in 2011 targeting 1,436, 1,726, 1,815 and 1,904 while 1,144 supports , as ONLY monthly open and close below 1,144 will complete the rise from 680 at 1,431. Inital buy zone of 1,294-1,326 in the days ahead while a month close below this zone will favor further downside correction towards 1,144.

For the Week of November 22-26, 2010

TraderX — Wed, 24 Nov 2010 20:12:26 +0000

EURUSD's rise from the September 10th low of 1.2643 is complete at the November 4th high of 1.4281 as prices have now moved within 1.3268-1.3655 consolidation zone of the 1.2643-1.4281 rise. A daily open and close outside the above mentioned zone will favor further price extension in the direction of the break with 1.3131, 1.2950 and 1.2632 as downside targets while an upside break targets 1.3782, 1.3900, and 1.4045. For the week ahead, look to sell EURUSD while 1.3655 caps for 1.3268 and 1.3131 as the next objective.

For the Week of September 26-October 1, 2010

TraderX — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 05:49:13 +0000

EURUSD's fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 will be complete with a weekly open and higher close above 1.3124, as price will then move within a 1.3124-1.3895 zone before another attempt to the downside. Once prices have moved within the above sited zone, a sustained break of this zone will favor further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the corrective rise from the October 10th, 2010 low of 1.2674, this rise has reached 1.3505, just a few pips shy of our 1.3509 sited target and remains active while 1.3188 supports, as ONLY a daily open and close below 1.3188 will complete the rise from 1.2674 while 1.3505 caps. For the week ahead, look to buy dips while 1.3188 supports for 1.3775, 1.3895, and 1.4042 potential upside targets with in the days and weeks ahead. fxtrader4u@aol.com

For the Week of September 19-24, 2010

TraderX — Sun, 19 Sep 2010 16:21:04 +0000

EURUSD's broad outlook remains unchanged as the fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.3124 will complete the fall from 1.5143 at the June 2010 low of 1.1876. A weekly open and close above 1.3124 will solicite further rise within a 1.3124-1.3895 zone before another attempt to the downside, however, once prices have moved within the sited zone, a sustained break outside the 1.3124-1.3895 zone will favor further price extension in the direction of the break. As to the fall from 1.3332, this fall is complete at 1.2586 as daily prices have sustained above 1.2871 reaching 1.3158 last Friday with further rise expected to unfold in the days ahead targeting 1.3390, 1.3675 and 1.3763 while 1.2900-1.2962 supports. However, a daily close below 1.2962 while 1.3158 caps will favor further downside extension towards 1.2750 while a below 1.2600 initially targets 1.2432.

For the Week of September 5-10, 2010

TraderX — Sun, 05 Sep 2010 16:01:43 +0000

EURUSD's broad outlook continues to favor further downside risk with the fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 remaining active as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.3124 will complete the fall while the June 2010 low of 1.1876 holds. However, the corrective rise from 1.1876 is complete at 1.3332 as prices have opened and closed below 1.2776 both on a weekly and daily basis subsequent to achieving the 1.3332 high. As to the downside extension from 1.3332, prices have reached a low of 1.2586 as this wave from 1.3332-1.2586 will ONLY be complete with a daily open and close above 1.2871 with potential for further rise targeting 1.3047. For the week ahead, while daily prices remain above 1.2776, look for further rise towards 1.2959 followed by 1.3047 before a another attempt to the downside. However, a sustained break of 1.3124 to the upside and 1.2600 to the dowside will favor further price extension in the direction of the break.

For the Week of August 21-27, 2010

TraderX — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 23:38:57 +0000

EURUSD's broad outlook continues to favor further downside extension as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.3124 will complete the fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 at the June 2010 low of 1.1876. As to the medium term corrective rise from 1.1876, this rise is now complete at the August 2010 high of 1.3332 with last weeks open and close below 1.2776 . In that prices have now entered the 1.2432-1.2776 consolidation zone, look for a sustained break of this zone to see further price extension in the direction of the break with a downside break initially targeting 1.2132 while to the upside a sustained break initially targeting 1.2919. However, risk remains for further downside extension into the days ahead targeting 1.2604 and 1.2432 as the next objectives while 1.2919 caps.

For the Week of August 15-20, 2010

TraderX — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 09:59:46 +0000

EURUSD's broad outlook remains unchanged as the fall from the November 2009 high of 1.5143 remains active as ONLY a weekly open and close above 1.3124 will complete this fall while 1.1876 holds. As to the corrective rise from the June 2010 low of 1.1876, ONLY a daily open and close below 1.2776 will complete this rise at the August 2010 current high of 1.3330. Outlook overal is mixed while last week's near 6 handle fall suggest risk for further downside in the week ahead. Look for a daily close below 1.2776 to favor further downside extension next targeting 1.2600 while to the upside a daily close above 1.3 to eliminate the near term downward risk.